Asia Shines Amidst Broad USD Weakness

Asian currencies eye selective recovery as the Dollar weakens on an intraday basis, while central bank speeches and key US data loom.

Our proprietary Market Readiness Score (MRS) stands at 57 today, indicating a moderate level of market engagement. The Carry Trade Score (CTS) is high at 81, suggesting continued appetite for carry strategies among investors. The New Zealand Dollar is today's strongest currency, while the US Dollar ranks as the weakest.

USD Dynamics and Geopolitical Focus

The US Dollar is seeing intraday weakness according to our strength gauge. However, the Euro is reported to be stagnating as bets on the Federal Reserve's policy direction are counteracting cooler Eurozone CPI figures. Geopolitical attention remains on US-Iran relations, with reports that President Trump is considering talks, which is impacting market sentiment for safe-haven assets.

• The Singapore Dollar faces "upside risks as momentum fades against the US Dollar," according to OCBC, though UOB notes consolidation within its range.
• OCBC suggests that Asian currencies overall have "margin for a selective recovery amid USD weakness."
• The Thai Baht's recovery "looks shallow without USD fading," per OCBC.

Asian Economic Performance

• Japan's final Manufacturing PMI for June came in at 54.8, slightly below the preliminary 54.9 but an improvement from the prior 54.5.
• The Tankan Large Manufacturers Index in Japan surged to 22 in the second quarter, significantly exceeding the expected 16.
• Australia's final Manufacturing PMI reached a 5-month high of 51.5, up from a preliminary 51.2 and the previous 50.7.
• China's Manufacturing PMI is reported to have risen again, according to InvestingLive.

Commodities Update

• Gold is reported to be stagnating near $4,000, with market focus shifting to US-Iran discussions and upcoming employment data.
• Silver is described by FXStreet analysts as being trapped below $60, with bears targeting $55.

Key Events Today

• 09:00 EUR · Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y: forecast 2.5% vs previous 2.5%
• 09:00 EUR · CPI Flash Estimate y/y: forecast 3.0% vs previous 3.2%
• 12:15 USD · ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: forecast 118K vs previous 122K
• 13:00 USD · Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks: scheduled
• 14:00 USD · ISM Manufacturing PMI: forecast 53.8 vs previous 54