Forex Daily: NFP Caution Grips the Dollar, Gold Rebounds

Markets tread carefully before the US jobs report, with the New Zealand Dollar leading the majors and gold rebounding on Fed-easing hopes.

Major Currencies

• Our intraday strength gauge ranks the US Dollar weakest of the day, a short-term move that sits against the headlines' "higher-for-longer" narrative on elevated rate-hike bets. Traders await the Non-Farm Payrolls report with caution.
• The New Zealand Dollar is the day's strongest currency, holding its bid even as May building permits fell 4.0% month-over-month (prior +10.9%).
• The British Pound recovered from its lows before running into resistance; FXStreet notes GBP/JPY bulls are eyeing 216 after a bullish break of range.
• The Japanese Yen is testing Tokyo's unofficial defense line, while the Australian Dollar holds a tight range on Beijing–Washington headlines.

Commodities

• Gold rebounded to nearly $4,050 on expectations of a softer Federal Reserve and ahead of the US jobs data.
• Crude oil settled at $68.58, its lowest close since the start of the Iran war, per FXStreet; Qatar reports "positive progress" in US–Iran talks.
• Our MRS reads 63 (moderate activity) and CTS 81 (an attractive carry environment).

Key Events Today

• USD · Non-Farm Employment Change: SCHEDULED (forecast 114K, previous 172K)
• USD · Unemployment Rate: SCHEDULED (forecast 4.3%, previous 4.3%)
• USD · Average Hourly Earnings m/m: SCHEDULED (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%)
• CHF · CPI m/m: SCHEDULED (forecast 0.1%, previous 0.2%)