Yen surges on wage data as gold falls near $4,400

Japanese Yen leads gains on strong wage growth, while gold struggles under Fed hike prospects.

Our proprietary metrics show an MRS of 63, with the CTS at 76 and FSI pointing to 'Greed' at 69. On an intraday basis, the New Zealand dollar is the strongest currency today, while the Euro is the weakest. That is the kiwi's second session at the top after being the weakest major on both Thursday and Friday — a full crossing of the table. It is an intraday basket reading, not the pair: NZD/USD itself softened on Monday on a cautious RBNZ. This short-term weakness for the Euro comes despite headlines indicating the currency is holding gains above 1.1600 amidst ongoing ECB tightening prospects.

Asia focus

The Japanese Yen surged following news of wage growth, reported as the strongest since 1997. Headline earnings for July 2026 rose +4.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations and cementing the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike. This robust data, alongside a revised Q2 GDP of +1.4% year-over-year, landed on a US Dollar Index that was already under pressure on Monday as yen buying accelerated. The yen has already taken that further: USD/JPY broke below 155.00 on Monday for the first time since February — the support MUFG had flagged as holding repeatedly this year — after giving up 1.22% on a day with American desks shut. In Asian hours it sank to around the mid-153.00s, its lowest since 18 February.

Dollar, gold and oil

Gold declined to near $4,400 as robust US jobs data bolstered expectations for Fed rate hikes, putting Fed hawks back in the driver’s seat. That lands the metal in the middle of the range Friday left marked: Wednesday’s $4,282 low against the $4,500 that capped it on Thursday, with neither edge tested yet.

The dollar index remains under pressure, but the line it lost on Thursday — its 200-day average — is still unresolved. Monday was a US holiday, so there has been no American close since Friday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed Monday just under $91.00, up 1.6%, on fresh strikes against Saudi Aramco facilities at Jizan and on renewed US-Iran attacks around Hormuz over the weekend. It is easing in Asian hours, near $90.40 — a grind that has covered roughly $10 from the $81.00 area in nine sessions, against about $88.55 at midday Friday.

The Canadian Dollar gained strength with that rally offsetting earlier jobs gloom, even as reports suggest the world has enough crude oil but not enough diesel. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect today on roughly 700 lines of American goods — the Section 338 package — with no headlines on them yet.

Key events today

• GBP · Monetary Policy Report Hearings · SCHEDULED
• China · Trade data · SCHEDULED

Beyond today, Thursday carries two high-impact prints in the same half hour: the ECB decision, with its main refinancing rate forecast to go from 2.40% to 2.65%, and US producer prices at a forecast 0.4% month-over-month against 0.0% previous. US CPI lands on Friday at 0.4% against 0.1%, and the Bank of Japan meets on 18 September — which is what today's wage data is really arguing about.