Macro
22 articles
Yields at a 19-year high and a dollar that beat every major
The US ten-year yield hit a 19-year high and the dollar rose against all seven majors in our feed. So why did it reach the top half of our strength table only once?
The Fed hiked and the dollar led none of the week's five sessions
Three central banks decided in three consecutive sessions, the barrel climbed and gave the whole move back, and the dollar index closed at a late-July high — so how did the dollar finish in the bottom three of eight in all five sessions, and what does that leave open?
Oil went from a shipping story to a rate hike in five sessions
Tankers on Monday, a ten-year yield touching 5% on Friday, a European Central Bank hike in between and a core inflation print above forecast - and the dollar never once topped our basket. What actually drove the week, and what is the tell for the next one?
Payrolls came in at nearly three times the forecast, so why did the dollar still lose the week?
Five readings, five different leaders, a war that escalated, a twenty-month high in yields and a payrolls print at nearly three times consensus — and the dollar still finished lower. What actually moved it, and the tell for next week.
The dollar started the week at three-month lows, so how did it win the week?
Five sessions, three leaders and none of them two days running — until Warsh put the Fed back in the hiking camp and the dollar headed for a weekly gain of close to 1%. The arc, what he actually said, and the September meetings the desks are already naming.
How do US midterm elections move the dollar?
A worked example of how geopolitics affects forex: midterm elections do not move the dollar because of who wins, but because of whether government ends up divided. The chain runs from spending to inflation, then to rates, and only then to the exchange rate.
The dollar fell all week, so why did the winner change every day?
Five sessions of dollar weakness produced five different winners: CAD, JPY, NZD, CHF and GBP. That rotation, not the slide itself, is what Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut will test next week.
Week ahead: US CPI, Warsh, and a crowded yen trade
US inflation sets the tone this week, the yen is the crowd's favourite trade, and our indicators show a market coiled tight ahead of Tuesday.
Rate Cuts Are Off the Table: A Hawkish Fed Is Reshaping Every Major Pair
For two years the only question was when the Fed would cut. Now the market is pricing the opposite — and it is rewriting the dollar, gold and the yen all at once.
De-dollarization: headline fashion or structural shift?
"De-dollarization" returns to the headlines every few months. Rabobank now lists it alongside cyclical drivers for the Dollar — so it is worth separating the slow structural story…
Sintra: Why Will Markets Listen Hardest When Warsh Says the Least?
The Fed's Kevin Warsh, the BoE's Andrew Bailey and the ECB hosts take the Sintra stage on Wednesday — and with rate cuts already priced out, the risk for traders sits in the…
Gold Tops $5,000: What Does It Tell a Forex Trader About the Dollar?
Gold smashed its record above $5,000 and banks are already eyeing $6,000. Why a metal that pays nothing soars when the dollar wobbles — and what to read from it in Forex.
What Happens to the Dollar When the Fed's Independence Is Questioned?
Central-bank independence is a currency's silent foundation. What happens to the dollar when that independence is called into doubt — and why gold reflects it instantly.
Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Will the Jobs Report Decide the Fed's Next Hike?
The dollar found a second wind on rate-hike bets. Next week's US payrolls is the test that confirms or breaks it — what should traders watch before the print?
Hot Growth, Sticky Inflation: The US Data That Backs More Fed Hikes
Faster US growth, firm core inflation and a tight labor market all lean hawkish. What today’s data means for the Fed path — and what to watch next?
The Warsh Fed: Why Is the Market Pricing Rate Hikes, Not Cuts?
A new Fed chair, a hawkish first meeting and a dollar at multi-month highs: why markets now price rate hikes, not cuts — and what it means for every FX trade.
When Safe Havens Disagree: How to Read the Risk-Off Hierarchy in FX?
A firm Dollar, a stalling Yen and a sliding gold price reveal how the safe-haven hierarchy really works — and the three questions that decide which haven leads.
King Dollar's New Fuel: How the Tech Rout Is Powering the Greenback?
A tech-stock sell-off is sending traders into the US Dollar, not gold. Why high real yields and a hawkish Fed have given King Dollar new fuel.
