Canada sheds 68,300 jobs, loonie slides; gold briefly tops $4,200

Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September against a forecast gain, and FXStreet had the Canadian dollar at levels against the US dollar last seen in April 2025. Gold traded above $4,200 on our feed for the first time this week but closed just below it, and EUR/USD closed under 1.1215 for a third session in a row.

What the data showed

• CAD · Employment change: −68,300 against a forecast of +6,100, after −41,700 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%, as forecast. Action Forex called it a second straight monthly fall, with the losses concentrated in the public sector while private-sector employment rose by 24,000.

• USD/CAD jumped to 1.42987 at 12:35 UTC on our feed, minutes after the release and just short of the 1.43 that Rabobank said the pair had failed to break. It closed at 1.42566, up 0.22%. investingLive's rate tracker put the chance of no change at the Bank of Canada's next meeting at 74%.

• USD · University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary: 46.3 against 47.5 expected. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6%, a second monthly rise according to Action Forex.

The dollar, the euro and the pound

• The dollar weakened modestly from late Thursday as Treasury yields and oil ran into resistance, then recovered against the euro, sterling and the Canadian dollar in the European morning, Action Forex said. Investing.com reported the dollar's fourth straight weekly gain. FXStreet had WTI at $89.65 in the European morning after Trump said Washington would not attack Iran before November's midterms. It rose to near $90.65 in the US morning and fell again late in the session when Trump said Putin had agreed to supply diesel to the US and global markets, FXStreet reported.

• The investingLive tracker gave an 80% probability of no change at the Federal Reserve's next meeting and 25 basis points of hikes by year-end. That is still the reading in our weekly wrap: markets "took October off the Fed's table, not rate hikes".

• EUR/USD traded above 1.1215 from the Asian session into the European morning, peaking at 1.12429 at 05:41 UTC, then slipped below it around 10:30 UTC and did not get back. It bottomed at 1.11875 at 16:54 UTC, just above the 1.1185 Action Forex had flagged, and closed at 1.12020, down 0.08%. ING said markets were still pricing a French fiscal premium.

• EUR/GBP closed at 0.84638, below Wednesday's 0.84732, the previous low, and its lowest close since at least 25 September on our feed. The pound dipped to 1.32057 against the dollar at 12:55 UTC and closed at 1.32325, little changed. Since 24 September, every session's low has stayed within half a cent of 1.3200 on our feed. According to investingLive, the odds of a hike at the Bank of England's next meeting were 86%, and Commerzbank expects hikes in November and February, to 4.25%.

Gold, the yen and the Aussie

• Gold closed at $4,195.20 on our feed, up 1.5%, after a high of $4,207.33 at 05:37 UTC, and ended the week up 1.1% from the previous Friday's close of $4,147.62. FXStreet tied the gains to lower Treasury yields, a softer dollar and gloomier US consumers.

• The yen underperformed across the board as Japanese government bond yields fell more sharply than UK yields, FXStreet said. USD/JPY closed at 158.314, up 0.26%, with a high of 158.431 at 14:59 UTC, still under the 200-day moving average FXStreet put at 158.54.

• The Australian dollar outperformed its peers on a more upbeat mood after the correction in Treasury yields, FXStreet said. AUD/USD closed at 0.69841, up 0.39%, the biggest gain of the seven majors against the dollar on our feed.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 62, down from the 69 it held for six sessions, with its news component at its full 20: the drop came from its volatility (ATR) component, at 4 from 11. A CTS of 54 with its carry backdrop at 60, and an FSI of 61, Greed, from 58.

• Top of our strength table: the yen, on top for 385 of the session's 1,440 minutes, 27% of them, ahead of the US dollar on 193.

• Bottom: the Australian dollar, last for 20% of the minutes.

• The yen and the Aussie: the table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move. The yen led it on a day it fell against the dollar and the euro on our feed, and the Aussie trailed it on a day it gained the most against the dollar.

• Last week's test: gold traded above $4,200, the level that turned it back three days running in the week our weekly wrap covered, but closed below it. EUR/USD closed below 1.1215, the wrap's line, for a third session.

Next week: the US consumer price index comes on Wednesday, with TD Securities expecting core prices up 0.20% on the month, followed by producer prices and retail sales on Thursday, according to investingLive's week ahead.