EUR/USD sinks to a 2026 low as oil rebounds; gold fails at $4,200

The dollar closed higher against all seven majors on our feed as oil turned back up and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack called for higher rates. EUR/USD closed at 1.11547, below the 1.1159 our weekly wrap had flagged, and gold traded above $4,200 in Asian hours but closed under it for an 11th session in a row.

Oil, the Fed and the dollar

• Oil set the direction twice. Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire, the Guardian reported on Sunday, and FXStreet had WTI down near $90.00 in Asian hours. The relief faded as Action Forex pointed to doubts over the truce and reports of renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. investingLive's European wrap had WTI up 1.4% at $92.99, and after the close FXStreet said Brent had climbed above $107.

• The dollar was softer in Asian trade, with the Dollar Index sliding toward 102.00, FXStreet said, then turned higher from the European morning. FXStreet later put the index at an 18-month high, and on our feed the dollar closed higher against all seven majors. USD/CAD closed at 1.42814, its highest close on our feed since early April 2025, a session after Canada's jobs report; its high of 1.42875 at 18:32 UTC stayed short of the 1.43 Rabobank flagged in our weekly wrap. The US bond market was shut for Columbus Day, investingLive noted, and FXStreet flagged thin liquidity with Japan on holiday.

• Hammack said interest rates need to be higher and that inflation remains "too high", FXStreet reported. MUFG said markets price only modest tightening by the Federal Reserve this month.

The euro breaks a line

• EUR/USD peaked at 1.12173 at 01:11 UTC and slid from the European morning, with FXStreet citing French political and fiscal uncertainty and a dollar bid across the board. It closed at 1.11547, down 0.42%, after a low of 1.11525 at 20:03 UTC, the lowest price of 2026 on our feed and below the 1.1161 low of 5 October. It was a fourth close in a row below 1.1215.

• The slide took out 1.1159: in our weekly wrap, Action Forex said a break below it would give the dollar another source of support. The pair first traded below it in the 15:00 UTC hour and stayed under it through the last two hours of the session. The wrap paired that level with the French-German bond gap, and today's sources gave no figure for it.

• EUR/GBP hit a year-to-date low of 0.8445, FXStreet said, and closed at 0.84455, its lowest close on our feed since June 2025. The pound climbed to 1.32615 at 06:31 UTC, before London opened, then fell to 1.32018 at 15:46 UTC and closed at 1.32078, down 0.19%. After the close FXStreet counted Monday as the 13th session since 24 September to bottom within about 25 pips of 1.3200.

Gold, the yen and the franc

• Gold traded above $4,200 on our feed from the 00:00 UTC hour into the 04:00 hour, peaking at $4,216.98 at 01:05 UTC. It fell to $4,154.52 at 12:38 UTC and closed at $4,169.22, down 0.62%. FXStreet tied the drop to an oil shock that fuelled a dollar rally and Fed hike bets.

• USD/JPY closed at 158.615, up 0.19%, its highest close on our feed since 24 September. FXStreet pointed to the oil rally and Japan's fiscal concerns.

• The Swiss franc lost the most of the seven against the dollar: USD/CHF closed at 0.83464, up 0.55%, as FXStreet cited Middle East tensions and doubts over the ceasefire. The Australian dollar, Friday's biggest gainer, stalled below 0.7000: AUD/USD peaked at 0.69952 at 01:06 UTC and closed at 0.69592, down 0.36%.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 63, with its news component at its full 20. A CTS of 54 with its carry backdrop at 60, and an FSI of 57, Neutral.

• Top of our strength table: no clear leader; the top two were within the noise margin.

• Bottom: the US dollar, last for 20% of the session's 1,439 minutes.

• The dollar: the table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move. The dollar spent the most minutes at the bottom on a day it closed higher against all seven majors on our feed.

• Last week's test: gold closed below $4,200 for an 11th session in a row on our feed, after another spell above it. The wrap's tell stays open through the US inflation data and the rest of the week.

This week: the US consumer price index comes on Wednesday; a MUFG preview puts the expected annual headline rate at 3.6% and says core must surprise to revive an October Fed hike. On Thursday come Australia's September jobs figures, UK GDP, and US producer prices and retail sales.