Dollar falls against six majors despite hot US PPI; gold gains 1.8%

US producer prices rose 1.3% in September against a 0.6% forecast and retail sales beat too, yet Treasury yields kept falling and the dollar closed lower against six of the seven majors on our feed, all but the Australian dollar, a day after rising against six. EUR/USD closed above 1.1215 for the first time since 6 October, and gold rose 1.81% to $4,175.63, still below $4,200.

What the data showed

• USD · PPI m/m: 1.3% against a 0.6% forecast, from 0.4%; core 0.7% against 0.3%. investingLive had the annual rate at 6.3% against 5.3% expected, and Action Forex called the monthly jump the largest since March 2022.

• USD · Retail sales m/m: 0.8% against 0.3%; excluding autos 0.9% against 0.6%. Action Forex said gasoline did the heavy lifting and sales volumes rose just 0.1% after inflation.

• AUD · Employment change: −39.3K against a forecast gain of 19.6K; unemployment 4.7% against 4.6%. GBP · GDP m/m: 0.1% against a forecast fall of 0.1%.

Yields fell, and the dollar fell with them

• The hot data did not lift yields. A rout in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks pushed money into Treasuries, FXStreet said, and the Dollar Index gave back its gain from Wednesday's inflation data, falling from just under 103.00, its highest in 18 months, to just under 101.90, its lowest since 7 October. Action Forex tied the slide in yields to AI credit fears that hit Asian tech stocks and the Nasdaq.

• Commerzbank said Wednesday's inflation data had revived pricing for an October Federal Reserve hike, though it still expects no move until December. Later in the session FXStreet said the producer data was nearly cementing the case for December rather than October.

• Oil eased: WTI fell after five days of gains, to around $93.10 in Asian hours, on talk of US sanctions relief for shadow-fleet vessels, FXStreet said.

The euro, the franc and the pound

• EUR/USD dipped to 1.11506 at 21:05 UTC, in the session's first minutes, and was back above 1.1159, the level Action Forex flagged, within two hours. It closed at 1.12199, up 0.56%: its first close above 1.1215 since 6 October, ending a run of six closes below it that began when the pair lost the line our weekly wrap tracked.

• After the close FXStreet said the rebound came from the dollar side, because the euro area's own news was bad: industrial production had fallen 0.5% in August against a flat forecast, Eurostat data showed earlier in the session.

• USD/CHF fell 0.99% to close at 0.82668, after a low of 0.82645 at 18:30 UTC: the dollar's largest loss of the seven. FXStreet put the pair at two-week lows as Treasury yields pulled back.

• The pound was back above 1.3200 within two hours of the open, added to its gains after UK GDP beat forecasts and closed at 1.32758, up 0.63%. After the close FXStreet said it had risen through 1.3250 to its highest since 6 October.

• USD/CAD closed at 1.41850, down 0.37%, with a high of 1.42393 at 22:08 UTC, well short of the 1.43 Rabobank flagged in our weekly wrap. FXStreet had the Canadian dollar at two-week highs.

Gold, the yen and the Aussie

• Gold rose 1.81% on our feed and closed at $4,175.63, a whisker under its session high of $4,176.40, set in the final minute. FXStreet said it snapped a three-day losing streak as yields slid.

• USD/JPY fell 0.21% to 157.979, after a low of 157.546 at 13:55 UTC, its lowest in a week by FXStreet's count. MUFG said hawkish Bank of Japan commentary had supported the yen.

• AUD/USD fell 0.72% to 0.69214 after the jobs report: the only major to lose ground to the dollar. Action Forex said markets now price less than one more hike of 25 basis points by the Reserve Bank of Australia through mid-2027, with the quarterly CPI on 28 October the next test.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 81, from 83 on Wednesday, with its news component at its full 20. A CTS of 54 with its carry backdrop at 60, and an FSI of 56, Neutral, from 54.

• Top of our strength table: the Australian dollar, on top for 452 of the session's 1,438 minutes, 31% of them, a clear lead.

• Bottom: the Swiss franc, last for 24% of the minutes.

• The Aussie and the franc: the table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move. The Aussie led it on a day it was the only major to fall against the US dollar, and the franc trailed it on a day it gained the most against it.

• Last week's test: gold never traded above $4,200 during the session and closed below it for a 14th session in a row on our feed. That leaves Friday's session, the last of the week the wrap set for the test.

Today: after Bank of England Governor Bailey at 02:00 UTC, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at 03:30 UTC and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem at 04:15 UTC.