Oil falls back from $100 on Iran deal reports; the pound gains 0.56%

Unconfirmed reports of a US-Iran deal knocked oil back from $100 and the dollar fell against all seven majors. The pound gained 0.56% after UK jobs data.

OCT/21/2026 · 4 min readBy the ForexCommand team · Methodology · Standards

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Oil falls back from $100 on Iran deal reports; the pound gains 0.56%

The dollar closed lower against all seven majors on our feed, a day after rising against four, as unconfirmed reports of a US-Iran deal knocked oil off a one-month high. The pound gained the most, 0.56%, after strong UK jobs data, USD/CAD posted a fourth lower close in a row and the Australian dollar closed above 0.70.

What the data showed

GBP · UK unemployment: 4.7% in the three months to August, from 4.9% and below the 4.9% consensus FXStreet cited; employment rose 102,000 against 5,000 expected, investingLive reported. Average earnings rose 3.7% against a 3.8% forecast, from 3.9%, while pay excluding bonuses rose 3.7% against 3.6% expected. Action Forex said payrolls and vacancies still showed weak hiring.

EUR · Germany's ZEW economic sentiment fell to 28.1 in October from 34.7, below forecasts, while current conditions improved to −35.9 from −47.1, against −45.0 expected, investingLive and Action Forex reported.

Iran headlines, oil and the dollar

Al Araby Al Jadeed reported that Qatar and Pakistan had put a compromise proposal to Washington and Tehran, investingLive said, and Israel's Channel 12 later said the two sides seemed to have reached an agreement, according to FXStreet. The Dollar Index fell to its lowest since 1 October, just above 101.50, then steadied on a denial, FXStreet said; another report said talks were ongoing and no deal was finished.

WTI reached a one-month high above $100 earlier in the day, then fell to around $95.70 around 15:00 UTC, down 2.36% on the day, on the compromise reports, FXStreet said. The same source had US Treasury yields edging lower and said gold drifted lower even as yields fell and the dollar weakened; on our feed gold closed at $4,120.27, down 0.53%, its third lower close in a row.

EUR/USD rose 0.22% to 1.12368, back above 1.1215, the line it had lost on Monday, after a high of 1.12608 at 14:30 UTC. Action Forex said the euro still lagged, with French government bond yields approaching 5% again.

Try the live tool →GBP/USD todayIs GBP/USD quieter or busier than normal? Which currency is pushing, and which data is still to come? Everything compared with its own history, not with a generic average.

The pound, the loonie and the Aussie

The pound rose 0.56% to 1.33792, the biggest gain of the seven against the US dollar, after a high of 1.34094 at 14:30 UTC. That close is above 1.3341, the line our weekly wrap cited from Action Forex, where a sustained break would raise the chance of a bullish reversal; on Friday and Monday it had traded above it and closed below. Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) said the jobs data bolstered bets on a 25 basis-point Bank of England hike to 4.00% on 5 November, and Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene said "wage disinflation has stalled".

USD/CAD fell 0.37% to 1.40591, its fourth lower close in a row and below 1.4081, the level Action Forex's weekly outlook had pointed to; it stayed under that line from the 07:00 UTC hour to the close. That close sat 81 pips below the 1.4140 fair value from Scotiabank cited in our weekly wrap. Action Forex said the odds of a 28 October Bank of Canada hike jumped from 30% to 82.8% over the weekend, and BBH, with swaps at 78%, called the pricing excessive.

AUD/USD rose 0.34% to 0.70030, a third higher close in a row and above 0.70, a level none of its previous ten closes on our feed had reached. It traded above Action Forex's 0.7012 resistance only in the 14:00 UTC hour, and FXStreet said the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance kept demand for the Aussie intact.

USD/JPY fell 0.22% to 158.162. FXStreet said it failed again at its 200-day moving average at 158.57, and cited a Reuters report, based on four sources, that the Bank of Japan would leave rates steady in October and raise its inflation forecast.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

Readings: an MRS of 73, from 81 on Monday: its volatility (ATR) component fell to 22 from 30, with news at its full 20 both days. A CTS of 54 with its carry backdrop at 60 out of 100, and an FSI of 53, Neutral, from 56.

Top of our strength table: the Swiss franc, for a second session, first for 249 of the session's 1,423 minutes, 17% of them, a clear lead.

Bottom: the Canadian dollar, last for 24% of the minutes, a clear laggard.

The loonie and the pound: the table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move. The Canadian dollar spent the most minutes at the bottom on a day it gained 0.37% against the US dollar, and the pound, the day's biggest gainer, spent the fewest on top, 93.

Last week's test: EUR/USD stayed between the two lines our weekly wrap set, 1.1276 above and 1.1111 below, for a second session, so the tell is still open.

Today: UK CPI is due at 06:00 UTC, forecast at 3.4% from 3.1%, and Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks at 13:00 UTC. New Zealand's quarterly CPI follows at 21:45 UTC, forecast at 0.8% from 1.5%.