Gold closed the week below $4,000 as oil and the yen climbed

Last week's note closed on two Action Forex levels on EUR/USD. By those levels, a session close above 1.1276 would suggest the euro's slide had at least paused, and a close below 1.1111 that it had resumed. Neither came. The pair closed all five sessions between the two lines. Its high on our feed, 1.12608 on Tuesday, stayed 15 pips short of the upper one, and its low, 1.11806, set minutes after Sunday's open, stayed 70 pips above the lower one.

The euro finished the week down 0.32%, at 1.12031, and Action Forex's new weekly outlook describes sideways consolidation and still expects further losses while 1.1276 holds. The week's move was elsewhere. Gold fell in four of the five sessions and closed on Friday at $3,999.79, down 4.05% on the week: its first close below $4,000 since our feed began in August, and its largest weekly fall in the nine full weeks the feed covers.

Oil went the other way. By Friday WTI had broken out of the $95–$101 band it held from Monday to Thursday, to a 22-week high, FXStreet said. OCBC said surging oil was reviving inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged restrictive policy from the Federal Reserve, and that this was weighing on gold. The dollar finished the week lower against five of the seven majors on our feed, and higher only against the euro and the Swiss franc.

Monday and Tuesday: France, China and Iran

On Monday violent protests in France weighed on the euro, and EUR/USD closed back below 1.1215 after two closes above it. China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% on the year against 4.4% expected, investingLive reported, and the Australian dollar gained the most of the seven. Canada's consumer prices rose 3.1% on the year in September, below the 3.2% that Wells Fargo and TD Securities had expected in last week's note, and USD/CAD still posted a third lower close in a row.

Tuesday brought unconfirmed reports of a US-Iran deal. FXStreet said WTI reached a one-month high above $100 earlier in the day and then fell to around $95.70 on the reports, and the dollar closed lower against all seven majors. UK unemployment fell to 4.7% and employment rose by 102,000 against 5,000 expected, investingLive reported. The pound gained the most, 0.56%, and closed above 1.3341, where Action Forex had said a sustained break would raise the chance of a bullish reversal. AUD/USD closed above 0.70, at 0.70030, for the first time since 28 September.

Wednesday: UK inflation and French yields, but little moved

UK consumer prices rose 3.5% on the year in September, from 3.1%, and core inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.6%, both in line with the Wells Fargo forecasts that last week's note cited. France's 10-year government bond yield rose above 5% for the first time since 2002, according to Action Forex. Yet on Wednesday the pound gained only 0.11% against the dollar on our feed and the euro slipped 0.04%.

The Australian dollar moved more, up 0.36%. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said early in the session that the inflation outlook appeared worse than forecast, and Action Forex said his warning lifted the odds of a November hike from about 27% to 40–45%.

Thursday: the yen broke out, and gold fell

On Thursday USD/JPY fell 0.87% to 156.761 and closed below 157.50, the floor of a range that FXStreet said had held for 12 sessions. FXStreet tied the yen's rise to safe-haven demand as concerns over AI-related investments weighed on global equities, and Investing.com said Treasury yields fell to one-month lows on the same demand.

Gold did not share it. It fell 2.58% in the same session, to $4,027.90, and FXStreet said energy-driven inflation concerns reinforced expectations that interest rates would stay elevated for longer. ING said Brent traded back above $110 following new attacks on Saudi Arabia. The dollar closed lower against the yen, the franc, the Canadian dollar and the pound, and USD/CAD posted a sixth lower close in a row.

Friday: gold closed below $4,000

On Friday gold fell 0.70% to $3,999.79, 21 cents below $4,000, after a low of $3,975.49. WTI rose above $100 and then out of its weekly band, after what FXStreet described as two days of Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and strikes on ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Action Forex said Brent reached its highest since early May, and late in the session investingLive reported that Trump told a rally the US may do "another operation" against Iran.

Japan's September consumer prices, released early in the session, rose 2.1% on the year, as expected, and 2.4% excluding fresh food and energy, against 2.3% expected; last week's note had cited Wells Fargo expecting 2.3%, without naming the measure. The dollar closed higher against the franc, the pound, the euro and the yen. USD/CAD dipped to 1.39684 and closed back above 1.4000, its seventh lower close in a row.

The week in our price feed

Last one-minute price before the Friday close in our own MT5 feed; changes are computed from unrounded prices. After a week lower against six majors, the dollar finished this one lower against five. The Australian dollar gained the most against it, followed by the Canadian and New Zealand dollars, and the euro and the Swiss franc were the only majors to lose ground. Gold fell 4.05% on the week, from $4,168.77 to $3,999.79.

AUD/USD's Friday close was its highest since 23 September, and USD/CAD's its lowest since 18 September. USD/JPY closed below 157.50 on Thursday and Friday, its first closes below that level since 30 September.

What our own gauges saw

Market Readiness Score (MRS), Carry Trade Score (CTS) and Forex Strength Index (FSI) readings at each session's close. The last two columns come from our strength table: the currency that spent the most minutes in first place, with its share, and the dollar's rank on that count. The MRS fell from 81 to 73 on Tuesday as its volatility component dropped from its full 30 to 22, and its news component read its full 20 at every close. The CTS read 54 in every session, and the FSI closed every session Neutral, between 53 and 58.

Over the 7,156 minutes our feed covered this week, the Swiss franc spent the most minutes at the top of the table, 1,100 of them, followed by the euro on 1,041 and the yen on 1,001. The franc and the euro were the two majors that lost ground against the dollar on the week. The Australian dollar, the week's biggest gainer, was fourth on 952, and the US dollar seventh on 796: the table counts minutes in first place, not how far a currency moves.

What stays open

The Fed meets on 27–28 October. TD Securities expects it to hold at 4.00%, and a Fed preview carried by Action Forex said markets price a 15–25% probability of a hike. Commerzbank expects both the Fed and the European Central Bank to leave rates unchanged in October and to raise them by 25 basis points in December.

The Bank of Canada decides on Wednesday, and the houses are split. RBC sees a 25 basis-point hike as possible, with December or January as the alternative; TD Securities expects a hold at 2.25% and hikes in December and January. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decides on 28 October too, and investingLive said markets still price a hike as near certain.

Standard Chartered expects the Bank of Japan to keep its rate at 1.25% at its 29–30 October meeting. Action Forex's week-ahead note expects the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan to stay on the sidelines and the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada to raise rates, and said a UK budget with no surprises would be good news for the pound. The US midterms follow on 3 November.

The tell to watch. 1.3985 on USD/CAD. From Tuesday, Action Forex's daily outlook said a firm break of that level would indicate that the pair's rise from 1.3480 had completed as a corrective move, with 1.3792 next. On Friday the pair dipped to 1.39684 and closed back above 1.4000, at 1.40026, its seventh lower close in a row; Action Forex's weekly outlook keeps its bias on the downside, with minor resistance at 1.4080. By those levels, a session close below 1.3985 would point to a deeper fall, while a close above 1.4080 would be its first close above that level since Monday.