Gold sinks 3.54% to a one-year low as two Fed hawks call for more hikes

Gold fell 3.54% to $3,875.18 on our feed, its first move below $3,900 since October last year, FXStreet said, and silver closed below $50. USD/CAD closed under 1.3985, the tell in our weekly wrap, and two Fed officials called for more rate hikes.

Gold and silver broke lower

• Gold fell 3.54% to $3,875.18 on our feed, ending a run of four closes above $4,000, after a low of $3,870.06 at 19:45 UTC. It was its third lower close in a row and the lowest of its last eleven, and late in the session FXStreet said it set a new year-to-date low as hawkish Fed rhetoric pushed prices lower.

• In the European session it kept falling even as Treasury yields and the dollar declined, Action Forex said, calling position-cutting across volatile assets a plausible explanation while worries over AI spending hit tech stocks. investingLive said forced liquidations hit gold as equity losses mounted.

• Silver fell 5.78% to $49.136, its third lower close in a row and its first close below $50 in the eleven on our feed. FXStreet said it hit its lowest since November 2025 and was on track to lose about 18% in October.

USD/CAD closed below the tell

• USD/CAD fell 0.11% to 1.3974, the lowest of its last eleven closes and below 1.3985, the Action Forex level that our weekly wrap named as its tell, a day after closing just above it. It traded under that line in every hour from 01:00 UTC, with a low of 1.39418 at 15:45 UTC. By Action Forex's levels, the close points to a deeper fall, and its daily outlook said a sustained break would extend the decline to 1.3792.

• FXStreet said rising oil prices supported the Canadian dollar despite stalled domestic growth. It also said WTI was holding above $103 at midday, near five-month highs, on reports of new attacks on vessels trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, after steadying below $102 in early Asian hours on diplomatic hopes.

What the data showed

• JPY · Bank of Japan policy rate: held at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8–1 vote, Action Forex said, and investingLive said the bank declared underlying inflation at its 2% target. USD/JPY fell 0.10% to 157.553, its third lower close in a row and its fourth straight above 157.50.

• CAD · GDP: 0.0% on the month in August, against a 0.2% forecast. investingLive said Statistics Canada's advance estimate showed a 0.1% contraction in September.

• EUR · Eurozone GDP: 0.4% on the quarter in the third quarter, against 0.2% expected, investingLive reported, while France's economy shrank 0.1%. FXStreet said EUR/USD retreated despite the stronger data; it fell 0.18% to 1.11597 after a high of 1.12148 at 01:18 UTC.

• USD · Employment Cost Index: 0.8% in the third quarter, as forecast.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 80, unchanged, with its news component at its full 20 on both days; a CTS of 54, also unchanged, with its carry backdrop at 60 out of 100 and the Bank of Japan's hold now the most recent decision among its inputs, and an FSI of 59, Neutral, up from 55.

• Top of our strength table: the euro, first for 316 of the session's 1,440 minutes, 22% of them, a clear lead. Yet it closed lower against the dollar, and EUR/GBP fell 0.27% to 0.83345, the lowest of its last eleven closes, on a day FXStreet said the euro hit a 19-month low against the pound. The table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move.

• Bottom: no currency clearly trailed.

• The dollar: Action Forex said it weakened against all seven majors in the European session as markets scaled back bets on Federal Reserve tightening beyond December; by mid-afternoon FXStreet said it was recovering from that weakness. Then St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the Fed will need to raise rates "again soon", and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said "at least two more quarter-point rate hikes" are needed, FXStreet reported. The dollar closed higher against the euro, the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar on our feed and lower against the other four; GBP/USD rose 0.10% to 1.33896, its third higher close in a row, and AUD/USD rose 0.04% to 0.70314, its ninth close in a row above 0.70.

Next week: the US midterms are on 3 November, and investingLive said the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are expected to raise rates, with US and Canadian jobs reports due on Friday.