US payrolls hit 165K vs 65K forecast, and USD/CAD closes above 1.41

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October against a 65,000 forecast, and the dollar closed higher against all seven majors on our feed. Canada lost jobs and USD/CAD rose 0.79% to 1.41286. AUD/USD and NZD/USD had done most of their falling before the report.

What the data showed

• USD · Nonfarm payrolls: 165,000, against 65,000 forecast. September was revised to 60,000 from 29,000, and revisions to the two prior months added a net 84,000, investingLive said. Unemployment rate: 4.1%, against 4.2% forecast. Average hourly earnings: 0.4% on the month, against 0.3%.

• CAD · Employment change: −4,700, against a forecast 14,600 rise, after −68,300. Unemployment rate: 6.7%, against 6.5% forecast. Private-sector jobs fell by 52,500, Action Forex said.

• USD · Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment: 51.0, against 48.1 forecast; October's final was 48.0.

• EUR · Retail sales: −0.7% on the month in September, against −0.1% expected, investingLive said.

The dollar won before the report and after it

• The dollar closed higher against all seven on our feed, from 0.49% against the yen and the Swiss franc to 0.94% against the Australian dollar, two sessions after closing lower against all seven. Investing.com called it the dollar's best day since June. By 13:29 UTC, the minute before the report, it had made more than half of that net move against six of the seven; only USD/CAD made most of its move afterwards. FXStreet had already put the dollar index at weekly highs above 102.00 before the report, on risk aversion and hopes of a strong number.

• The report strengthened the case for further Fed tightening, Action Forex said, and FXStreet said it raised the chances of a December hike. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the report "gives latitude to get inflation job done", FXStreet reported.

• USD/CAD rose 0.79% to 1.41286, the highest of its last eleven closes; FXStreet called the US jobs boom and Canada's losses a double blow for the Canadian dollar. It closed above 1.4067, where Action Forex's daily outlook said a firm break would indicate short-term bottoming, and it stayed all session above 1.3986, the downside line our weekly wrap carried from Action Forex.

• AUD/USD fell 0.94% to 0.68649, the lowest of its last eleven closes and below 0.6893, the support Action Forex said had given way. Its low, 0.68542 at 14:27 UTC, took it to levels FXStreet said were last seen in late March, but it was already at 0.68755 by 13:00 UTC, half an hour before the report. NZD/USD fell 0.87% to 0.55452 and was at 0.55457 by then, so almost all of its net fall came before the report, though it touched 0.55274 at 14:27 UTC before recovering. Action Forex said the Aussie and the kiwi took the heaviest currency losses as the Nikkei fell 5.96% into a bear market. FXStreet cited cautious Reserve Bank of Australia guidance for the Aussie, and soft jobs data and political uncertainty for the kiwi, which it put at a 19-month low ahead of the data.

• In New York, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.09% and the Dow fell 0.46%, Action Forex said, a day after what investingLive called the Nasdaq 100's worst session since 2020.

• EUR/USD fell 0.70% to 1.11397. Its low, 1.11309 at 14:23 UTC, stopped 28 pips above 1.1103, the lower line of the tell in our weekly wrap, and the close, between both lines, left the tell open.

• GBP/USD fell 0.72% to 1.33524, its first close below 1.34 since 30 October; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said "nothing is baked in" for rates next year, FXStreet reported. USD/JPY rose 0.49% to 158.474, ending a run of two lower closes and posting its ninth close in a row above 157.50. FXStreet, which on Thursday said traders sought safety in the yen, said the US data brought the dollar's yield advantage back into focus.

• Gold fell 0.81% to $4,065.82 on our feed, its third close in a row above $4,000, after a low of $4,027.44 at 13:30 UTC, the minute of the report; it ended the week 4.92% above last Friday's $3,875.18. Oil came under pressure, investingLive said, after Al-Arabiya, citing an Iranian source, reported that Iran was responding positively to mediators' latest proposals.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 43, from 71. Its news component, which falls as a calendar event nears, read zero, from its full 20 at the previous close, because New Zealand's parliamentary election was on the calendar at 21:45 UTC, 15 minutes before the close, so 20 of the 28 points were the calendar. The CTS read 50, unchanged, with its carry backdrop at 64 out of 100; the FSI read 55, Neutral, from 50.

• Top of our strength table: no clear leader; the top two were within the noise margin.

• Bottom: the US dollar, a clear laggard, last for 22% of the session's 1,435 minutes, even though it closed higher against all seven. The table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move.

Next: New Zealand votes today, FXStreet said. For the week ahead, Action Forex's note put US CPI, PPI and Fed speakers on the radar.