NZD/USD: how much does it move, when, and what moves it?

The calmest of seven major pairs in pips (48 a day) and the most volatile in percent (0.81% of its price). Measured on 521 days of our own price history.

OCT/9/2026 · 8 min readBy the ForexCommand team · Methodology · Standards
NZD/USD: how much does it move, when, and what moves it?

NZD/USD sits at both ends of the same table. Counted in pips, it is the calmest of the seven pairs we compare; counted as a share of its price, it is the most volatile. A typical day covers 48 pips, and a typical day's range is 0.81% of its price.

Its day is also the most evenly spread: its best hour is worth only 2.3 times its worst, and the London–New York overlap carries just over half of its range. If you trade Asian hours, this pair does not switch off the way the European ones do.

How the numbers were built. Hourly bars from January 2021 to October 2026. The headline figures use the last two years, 521 Monday-to-Friday days (10 October 2024 to 8 October 2026), with Sundays excluded because in UTC they hold only the first two or three hours of the week. The other pairs in the tables are recomputed over that same window, so they can differ by a pip or two from their own articles. Every hour below is UTC.

How much does NZD/USD move in a day?

Kind of dayRange
Very quiet (10th percentile)29 pips
Quiet (25th percentile)36 pips
Typical (median)48 pips
Busy (75th percentile)62 pips
Very busy (90th percentile)79 pips

A third of its days (33%) fail to reach 40 pips, and only 3% clear 100.

PairMedian daily rangeDays under 40 pipsRange as % of price
NZD/USD48 pips33%0.81%
AUD/USD51 pips29%0.76%
USD/CHF52 pips25%0.63%
USD/CAD59 pips17%0.42%
EUR/USD64 pips14%0.56%
GBP/USD79 pips5%0.60%
USD/JPY108 pips4%0.72%

Pips or percent?

Both columns are right, and the price explains the gap. A pip is a fixed step of 0.0001 on these pairs (0.01 on yen pairs), and over these two years the New Zealand dollar had a median close of 0.5847 US dollars, the lowest quote of the seven pairs. The same step is a bigger slice of it than of any other.

What that means for your account depends on how you count:

  • Per lot, it is the smallest day of the four pairs quoted in dollars. With the dollar as the second currency, a pip is worth US$10 per standard lot of 100,000 units, just as on AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. A typical NZD/USD day is about US$480 of range per lot; a typical EUR/USD day, about US$640. On USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY the pip is worth Canadian dollars, Swiss francs or yen, so they do not compare directly.
  • Per dollar of exposure, it is the biggest. That same lot is 100,000 New Zealand dollars, worth about US$58,000, against 100,000 euros, worth about US$115,000.

To turn either view into a position, there is the position size calculator, and lot sizes are explained in our guide to standard, mini and micro lots.

What hours is it genuinely alive?

Window (UTC)Median range per hour
00:00–02:00 · Wellington afternoon, Sydney and Tokyo morning8.5 to 10.5 pips
03:00–05:00 · Asian midday7 to 8 pips
06:00–08:00 · London opens9 to 10.2 pips
09:00–11:00 · European morning7.5 to 8 pips
12:00–15:00 · London–New York overlap10 to 12.5 pips
16:00–19:00 · New York afternoon6 to 9 pips
20:00–23:00 · around the New York close5.4 to 9 pips

The peak is at 14:00 UTC with 12.5 pips and the trough at 20:00 with 5.4: 2.3 times, the narrowest gap of the seven pairs, just below USD/JPY's. And the overlap carries only 52% of the range on a typical day, the lowest of the seven, against 60% for EUR/USD and 53% for USD/JPY.

The Asian session moves 74% as much as the overlap, second only to USD/JPY's 79% and against roughly half on the European pairs. Its best Asian hour, 01:00 UTC with 10.5 pips, edges past the best hour of the London open (07:00, 10.2). The map of sessions is in forex trading sessions and session overlaps; live, on the session clock.

What moves NZD/USD?

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). On 2 September 2026 it raised its rate to 2.75%. On our feed, the 02:00 UTC hour covered 53 pips, against 8.5 on a normal day at that hour, and the whole day 95, twice the median. The pair fell from 0.5896 at 02:00 to 0.5802 by 10:00 UTC, even though the bank had hiked: it had signalled a reduced need for further tightening, the reading of analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, in FXStreet's summary of the decision. It is a clear example of a decision read by its words rather than its number.
  • US data. In the hour non-farm payrolls (NFP) are released, its range is 2.62 times that same hour on an ordinary day, measured at 08:30 New York time on the first Friday of each month, the usual release day, over the 69 with data since 2021 (in the months the report came out on another day, that hour was an ordinary one, which pulls the figure down slightly). That is the highest of the seven dollar pairs, against 2.39 for EUR/USD and 1.30 for EUR/GBP, the control. In pips it is not the biggest move: its median in that hour is 36.8 pips, against 46.7 for EUR/USD. What is bigger is the jump over its normal hour at that time, which is quieter. What the release measures is in our NFP explainer, and to size a position with it ahead, there is the news risk calculator.
  • Dairy. New Zealand exports dairy, so the kiwi has a commodity of its own, as we explained in our article on the kiwi's nickname. Our economic calendar lists the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index; the latest was scheduled for 6 October 2026 at 15:46 UTC. We cannot measure its effect: our price history holds currencies and metals, not dairy prices.
  • Rates against the rest of the world. The kiwi is a carry trade currency, so the distance between the RBNZ's rate and other central banks' moves it as much as the rate itself; that is the reading in our piece on the July RBNZ hike and the carry trade. And it cuts both ways: at 2.75%, where the RBNZ left it on 2 September, New Zealand's rate sits below US rates, as our RBNZ explainer noted on 21 September 2026, so against the dollar the carry runs the other way.

What moves with it and what does not?

It is not a separate bet from the aussie. Its correlation with AUD/USD is +0.89, the strongest between any two currency pairs in this series, above the −0.83 of EUR/USD and USD/CHF. Holding both is, in practice, holding one position twice.

What is left once the dollar cancels out is small. Day to day, AUD/NZD varies less than half as much as either pair against the dollar: a standard deviation of 0.27%, against 0.57% for AUD/USD and 0.59% for NZD/USD. That remainder is the difference between the two central banks and between minerals and milk, as we put it in the kiwi article.

Gold adds little of its own. Its correlation with gold is +0.41, practically the same as EUR/USD's +0.40: what they share is the dollar on the other side, the engine we found in our study of gold and EUR/USD.

And it is not a copy of EUR/USD, though it is closer to the European pairs than the aussie is: +0.70 with EUR/USD and +0.74 with GBP/USD, against +0.61 and +0.66 for AUD/USD. Close enough to add risk, far from a mirror.

Is it a good pair to start on?

It is the gentlest in pips, the smallest day per lot of the pairs quoted in dollars, and its range is spread across more hours than any other pair here. For someone who can only trade the Asian morning, that counts.

The catch is the other column. Per dollar of exposure it is the most volatile of the seven, so size it by money, not by pips. And a single RBNZ decision can double its normal day, as on 2 September. Measure the spread against a 48-pip day, and use ATR (Average True Range) to fit the stop to recent weeks.

What these numbers do not tell you

  • Dairy is left out. It is a real driver of this pair and we have not measured it, because we do not hold the series.
  • The median is not your day. It describes the centre of a distribution, not what happens tomorrow.
  • No spread and no slippage are inside it. Our history stores prices, not costs.
  • The granularity is one hour, so a five-minute spike is invisible, and the RBNZ day above is a single example, not an average.
  • This is not a forecast. It describes how the pair has behaved; the past shapes the expectation, never the outcome.
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