RBA hikes to 4.85% yet AUD/USD falls 0.45%; NZ jobs miss hits the kiwi

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85%, as forecast, and AUD/USD still fell 0.45% on our feed. New Zealand's jobs data missed 15 minutes before the close and NZD/USD fell 0.54%, the dollar's biggest move, while USD/JPY rose 0.48% to 158.693.

The Aussie and the kiwi fell

• The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, from 4.60%, in a 6–3 vote; TD Securities said it was the highest since 2008. Action Forex said the bank dropped its explicit tightening bias and signalled a pause to assess, and Commerzbank said the Australian dollar fell because markets saw the hike as dovish.

• AUD/USD fell 0.45% to 0.69655, its second close in a row below 0.70 and the lowest of its last eleven, after a low of 0.69617 at 08:53 UTC. Action Forex's daily report said the pair's intraday bias had turned back down, towards a retest of its 0.6893 low.

• NZD/USD fell 0.54% to 0.55858, the lowest of its last eleven closes, most of it in the session's last hour, after New Zealand's employment data missed at 21:45 UTC; it touched 0.55822 at 21:53. investingLive said the miss on every major measure was likely to weigh on the kiwi and trim pricing for a December rate hike.

The dollar recovered on US data

• The dollar closed higher against five of the seven majors on our feed and slightly lower against the euro and the pound. FXStreet said it moved in a hesitant range before the US midterms, and that factory orders and a stronger-than-expected JOLTS report trimmed its earlier losses. USD/JPY rose 0.48% to 158.693, the highest of its last eleven closes and its sixth in a row above 157.50, as the yen underperformed its major peers, FXStreet said.

• USD/CHF rose 0.26% to 0.82082, back above 0.8190 a session after closing below it; Action Forex's daily outlook had said the break of that support opened the way to 0.8092. The pair fell to 0.81491 at 07:34 UTC, minutes after Swiss consumer prices beat forecasts, and FXStreet said the franc hit a seven-week high.

• USD/CAD rose 0.16% to 1.40096, its first close above 1.40 since 27 October, after a low of 1.39502 at 11:49 UTC. FXStreet said swings in oil overshadowed hawkish remarks from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, who said "further rate hikes may be needed". Oil rebounded from Monday's slide after the Wall Street Journal reported a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, dampening optimism over diplomacy, and stayed volatile for the rest of the session, FXStreet said.

• EUR/USD edged up 0.05% to 1.11927, between 1.1175 and 1.12068 all session, well inside the 1.1103 to 1.1269 range that our weekly wrap set as its tell. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said a December ECB hike "is very likely to be necessary", FXStreet reported. GBP/USD rose 0.06% to 1.34139, its fifth higher close in a row and the highest of its last eleven.

• Gold fell 0.62% to $3,921.34 on our feed, after Monday's 1.82% rise, and dipped below $3,900 to $3,895.30 at 09:04 UTC. FXStreet said bets on further Fed hikes weighed on it. Silver fell 1.95% to $49.495, back below $50; Commerzbank called its intraday drop to $48.6 a 12-month low.

What the data showed

• NZD · Employment change: −0.1% in the third quarter, against a forecast 0.4% rise; unemployment rate: 5.7%, against 5.5% expected.

• USD · JOLTS job openings: 7.523 million, against a 7.15 million forecast. Factory orders rose 1.8% in September, against 1.2% expected, investingLive said.

• CHF · CPI: 0.2% on the month, against a flat forecast, and 1.5% on the year, against 1.3% expected, according to Action Forex.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 42, from 70. Its news component read zero, against its full 20 at the previous close, because New Zealand's jobs data was due at 21:45 UTC, 15 minutes before the close, and the component drops to zero when a high-impact release is that near, so 20 of the 28 points were the calendar. The CTS rose to 50 from 47, with its carry backdrop at 64 out of 100, from 60, and the RBA's hike now the latest decision in its inputs; the FSI read 55, Neutral, from 54.

• Top of our strength table: the yen, a clear leader, first for 20% of the session's 1,437 minutes, even though it closed lower against every major but the New Zealand dollar. The table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move.

• Bottom: the New Zealand dollar, a clear laggard, last for 17% of the minutes.

After the close: FXStreet carried a Financial Times report that President Trump had said the US had no immediate plan to attack Iran.

Next: tentative US midterm results are due today, Danske Bank said. The calendar also has euro-area flash inflation, forecast at 4.0%, and the US ISM services PMI, forecast at 54.8. The Bank of England decides on Thursday, with a hike to 4.00% from 3.75% forecast, FXStreet said.