Five central banks decided, and gold ended the week at a one-year low
Gold fell 3.54% on Friday to $3,875.18, its lowest since early October 2025, after a week in which five central banks decided. USD/CAD closed below the 1.3985 level named in last week's tell, and EUR/USD now faces 1.1103 and 1.1269.
Last week's note closed on two Action Forex levels on USD/CAD. By those levels, a session close below 1.3985 would point to a deeper fall, and a close above 1.4080 would be the pair's first above that level since 19 October. The upper line never came into play: the pair's high on our feed, 1.40686, stayed below it. The lower one held until the last session. On Thursday USD/CAD traded below 1.3985 in 14 of the session's 24 hours and still closed 3.7 pips above it; on Friday it closed at 1.3974, below it. The tell fired. Action Forex's new weekly outlook, which now puts that same level at 1.3986, keeps its bias on the downside and said sustained trading below it would target 1.3792 next.
The week's main story was gold. It closed above $4,000 from Monday to Thursday, then fell 3.54% on Friday to $3,875.18. That left it down 3.12% on the week, its third weekly fall in a row, and 7.04% lower over two weeks. Action Forex said it hit its lowest since early October 2025, and the hourly history in our feed agrees: its last hourly close that low was on 3 October 2025. Silver fell 8.94% on the week to $49.136, below $50, at what FXStreet called its lowest since November 2025.
In between, five central banks decided. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held when markets expected a hike, the Bank of Canada hiked, the Federal Reserve held with two votes for a hike, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan held. On Friday two Fed officials called for more rate hikes. The dollar finished the week higher against four of the seven majors on our feed, lower against the pound and the Canadian dollar, and flat against the Swiss franc; the New Zealand dollar lost the most.
Monday and Tuesday: the dollar firmed before the Fed
On Monday the dollar closed higher against all seven majors as traders bought it before Wednesday's Fed decision, FXStreet said, and USD/CAD ended a run of seven lower closes. ING said German business confidence rose to its highest in more than three years, yet EUR/USD still fell 0.26%. Gold closed back above $4,000, at $4,011.69, as oil eased from a five-month high.
On Tuesday pressure on French government bonds returned, Action Forex said, and the gap between France's and Germany's 10-year yields widened from around 153 to 162 basis points. EUR/USD fell 0.43% to 1.11257, its fifth lower close in a row, and Investing.com said the dollar hit a two-week high. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government was prepared to take decisive steps in the currency market, FXStreet reported, and USD/JPY still closed back above 157.50. In US data, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 91.7, against a forecast of 81.2, according to Action Forex.
Wednesday: three central banks in one session
The RBNZ held its cash rate at 2.75% in a 4–3 vote, against a forecast of 3.00%, and NZD/USD fell 0.99% on Wednesday, to 0.56254. The Bank of Canada raised its rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, as forecast, its first increase since July 2023, Action Forex said. The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with two members dissenting in favour of a hike, FXStreet said, and the same outlet said the US dollar index fell from just above 102.40 to near 102.05 during Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.
Australia's consumer prices rose 4.3% on the year in September, against 4.2% expected, and the UK budget cut the government's fiscal headroom from £23.6bn to £15bn, according to Action Forex. The dollar closed lower against six of the seven majors. EUR/USD ended its run of five lower closes, and USD/CAD's low, 1.39890, stayed 4 pips above 1.3985.
Thursday: the ECB held, and the euro hit a 17-month low
On Thursday the ECB left its main refinancing rate at 2.65% and its deposit rate at 2.50%, after announcing earlier in the session that Christine Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027. EUR/USD fell to 1.11044 on our feed four minutes after the decision, below 1.1111, where Action Forex had said a firm break would extend the pair's larger fall, and FXStreet called it a 17-month low. The pair then closed 0.24% higher, at 1.11796. After the close FXStreet said Lagarde saw another hike in December as likely.
US third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised pace, against a 3.2% forecast, investingLive said, and core PCE prices rose 0.3% on the month, as forecast, according to Action Forex. Gold fell 0.96% to $4,017.50, its fourth close in a row above $4,000, after a low that held $5.20 above that line; FXStreet said the US data cemented the case for a Fed hike at the 9 December meeting.
Friday: gold broke below $3,900
On Friday the Bank of Japan held its rate at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote, Action Forex said. Gold then fell 3.54% to $3,875.18, after a low of $3,870.06 at 19:45 UTC. In the European session it kept falling even as Treasury yields and the dollar declined, Action Forex said, calling position-cutting across volatile assets a plausible explanation, and investingLive said forced liquidations hit gold as equity losses mounted.
Later, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the Fed will need to raise rates "again soon", and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said "at least two more quarter-point rate hikes" are needed, FXStreet reported. Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% on the quarter, against 0.2% expected, investingLive said, and EUR/USD still fell 0.18%; FXStreet said the euro hit a 19-month low against the pound.
The week in our price feed
| Pair | Friday 23 | Friday 30 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1203 | 1.1160 | −0.39% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3376 | 1.3390 | +0.10% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7036 | 0.7031 | −0.06% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5700 | 0.5631 | −1.22% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4003 | 1.3974 | −0.20% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8250 | 0.8250 | 0.00% |
| USD/JPY | 156.85 | 157.55 | +0.45% |
Last one-minute price before the Friday close in our own MT5 feed; changes are computed from unrounded prices. After a week lower against five majors, the dollar finished this one higher against the New Zealand dollar, the yen, the euro and the Australian dollar, lower against the Canadian dollar and the pound, and flat against the Swiss franc. Gold fell 3.12% on the week, from $3,999.79 to $3,875.18, and silver 8.94%, from $53.958 to $49.136.
AUD/USD closed above 0.70 in all five sessions, and USD/JPY closed above 157.50 in the last four, after three closes in a row below it up to Monday.
What our own gauges saw
| Session | MRS | CTS | FSI | Most minutes on top | Dollar's rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 | 62 | 54 | 58 | no clear leader | 7th of 8 |
| Tue 27 | 61 | 54 | 54 | no clear leader | 7th |
| Wed 28 | 72 | 54 | 54 | no reading | — |
| Thu 29 | 80 | 54 | 55 | Australian dollar, 22.0% | 4th |
| Fri 30 | 80 | 54 | 59 | euro, 21.9% | 7th |
Market Readiness Score (MRS), Carry Trade Score (CTS) and Forex Strength Index (FSI) readings at each session's close. The last two columns come from our strength table: the currency that spent the most minutes in first place, with its share, and the dollar's rank on that count. Tuesday's reading was completed after that day's roundup was written, and Wednesday has no strength reading because our feed missed too many of that session's minutes. The MRS climbed from 61 on Tuesday to 80 by Thursday as its volatility component rose from 11 to its full 30, while its news component read its full 20 at every close. The CTS read 54 in every session, and the FSI closed every session Neutral, between 54 and 59.
Over the 5,627 minutes of the four sessions with a reading, the yen spent the most minutes at the top of the table, 879 of them, just ahead of the euro on 870. Both lost ground against the dollar on the week. The US dollar was last of the eight, on 530: the table counts minutes in first place, not how far a currency moves.
What stays open
The US midterms are on 3 November. A week-ahead note carried by Action Forex does not expect the outcome to meaningfully change the US economic outlook, and another expects the US employment report to prove decisive for a December Fed move. investingLive said the US and Canadian jobs reports are both due on Friday.
investingLive said the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are expected to raise rates. Standard Chartered expects the RBA to lift its cash rate to 4.85%, likely on 3 November, and TD Securities said markets already price an 80% chance of a November hike, which limits further support for the Australian dollar. FXStreet said the Bank of England votes on 5 November.
December is now the month the forecasts point to. FXStreet said Thursday's US data cemented the case for a Fed hike at the 9 December meeting and that Lagarde saw another ECB hike then as likely, and Rabobank expects a December ECB hike followed by a possible pause. Standard Chartered expects another 25 basis-point Bank of Canada hike in December, to 2.75%.
The tell to watch. 1.1103 and 1.1269 on EUR/USD. Action Forex's weekly outlook still expects further falls while 1.1269 resistance holds, and said a break of 1.1103/11 would extend the pair's larger fall from 1.2081 to 1.0904. On Thursday the pair dipped to 1.11044 on our feed and recovered the same session, and on Friday it closed at 1.11597. By those levels, a session close below 1.1103 would put the euro below Thursday's 17-month low and point to a deeper fall, while a close above 1.1269 would break the resistance that outlook keeps intact, and would be the pair's first close above that level since 30 September.
