Two central banks hiked, their currencies fell, and the dollar took the week
The RBA and the Bank of England raised rates, and the Australian dollar and the pound still ended the week lower against the dollar. Democrats swept Congress, US payrolls rose 165,000, and gold gained 4.92%. The new tell is AUD/USD at 0.6854 and 0.6952.
Last week's note closed on two Action Forex levels on EUR/USD. By those levels, a session close below 1.1103 would point to a deeper fall, and a close above 1.1269 would be the pair's first above that level since 30 September. Neither happened. On Wednesday the pair traded above 1.1269 in the 12:00 and 13:00 UTC hours, up to 1.12731 on our feed, and closed at 1.12287. On Friday its low, 1.11309, stopped 28 pips above 1.1103, and it closed at 1.11397. The tell did not fire. Action Forex's new weekly outlook keeps the lower level, now puts the upper one at 1.1272, and keeps its initial bias for the week neutral while still expecting further falls; it said a firm break of 1.1272 would indicate short-term bottoming.
The week's main story was two rate hikes that did not keep the currencies that got them from falling. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday, and the Bank of England raised its rate to 4.00% on Thursday. AUD/USD fell on the day of the RBA's decision, closed lower in four of the five sessions and lost 2.37% on the week, the most of the seven majors on our feed. GBP/USD fell 0.17% on the day of the Bank of England's decision, ending a run of six higher closes; it was still 0.45% up on the week at that close and finished 0.28% down after Friday.
The dollar finished the week higher against six of the seven majors, and lower only against the Swiss franc. It got there late. At Thursday's close it was still lower on the week against the euro, the pound and the franc. Action Forex said almost all of the dollar index's 0.31% weekly gain came from Friday's post-payroll rally, though on our feed much of Friday's move came before the report. Gold went the other way: it rose 4.92% to $4,065.82, its first weekly gain after three falls.
Monday: oil slid, and the Aussie closed below 0.70
On Monday WTI fell more than 5% as traders welcomed US-Iran diplomatic efforts, FXStreet said, after a five-month high of $104.03 on Friday. AUD/USD fell 0.48% to 0.69973, its first close below 0.70 since 19 October, and FXStreet said the currency underperformed all its major peers before the decision. USD/CHF fell 0.76%. Gold closed 1.82% higher at $3,945.88, its first higher close after three lower ones. In US data, the manufacturing PMI from the ISM came in at 55.5, against a 54.5 forecast.
Tuesday: the RBA hiked, and the Aussie fell
On Tuesday the RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% in a 6–3 vote. Action Forex said the bank dropped its explicit tightening bias and signalled a pause to assess, and Commerzbank said the Australian dollar fell because markets saw the hike as dovish. AUD/USD fell 0.45% to 0.69655.
New Zealand's employment fell 0.1% in the third quarter, against a forecast 0.4% rise, and unemployment reached 5.7%, against 5.5% expected. The data came 15 minutes before the close, and NZD/USD fell 0.54% to 0.55858. In the US, JOLTS job openings reached 7.523 million, against a 7.15 million forecast, and FXStreet said factory orders and that report trimmed the dollar's earlier losses.
Wednesday: Democrats swept Congress, and gold jumped
Democrats won majorities in both houses of the US Congress in the midterms, FXStreet reported, and on Wednesday the dollar closed lower against all seven majors. WTI was down 9% in the US afternoon, FXStreet said, adding that the trigger was unclear and that the move could be linked to the Democratic win. Gold rose 3.63% to $4,063.84, its first close above $4,000 since 29 October, and FXStreet called it the biggest rise since mid-August.
EUR/USD rose 0.32% and made its high of the week. USD/CAD touched its low of the week, 1.39296, and closed at 1.39775. Euro-area flash inflation reached 4.0%, as forecast, the first reading at that level since September 2023, investingLive said. The dollar won back part of its drop before the close, helped by resilient US data, FXStreet said; before the euro's high, ING had said much of the move was being reversed as investors refocused on a strong US economy and a tightening Fed.
Thursday: the BoE hiked, and tech stocks broke
On Thursday the Bank of England raised its rate to 4.00% from 3.75%, as forecast, in an 8–1 vote, with Catherine Mann backing a 50-basis-point hike, Action Forex said. Danske Bank called the vote and the higher inflation projections a hawkish surprise. GBP/USD was already down at 1.34528 just before the 12:00 UTC decision, stood at 1.34828 at 16:59 UTC and closed 0.17% lower at 1.34493; FXStreet said solid US data and hawkish comments from Fed officials weighed on the pound.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%, in what investingLive called its worst day since 2020, and FXStreet said traders sought safety in the yen. USD/JPY fell 0.46%, still above 157.50 at the close. AUD/USD fell 1.07% to 0.69299. Gold reached its high of the week, $4,146.88, before the sell-off, and closed at $4,098.99, up 0.86%.
Friday: 165,000 jobs, and the dollar beat all seven
US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, against a 65,000 forecast, and unemployment fell to 4.1%, against 4.2% forecast. Canada lost 4,700 jobs, against a forecast 14,600 rise, and its unemployment rate rose to 6.7%. On Friday the dollar closed higher against all seven majors, and USD/CAD rose 0.79% to 1.41286, the highest of its last eleven closes. Investing.com called it the dollar's best day since June.
Much of it came before the report. By 13:29 UTC, one minute before it, the dollar had made more than half of that session's net move against six of the seven; only USD/CAD made most of its move afterwards. Action Forex said the Aussie and the kiwi took the heaviest currency losses as the Nikkei fell 5.96%. AUD/USD closed at 0.68649, after a low of 0.68542 at levels FXStreet said were last seen in late March. EUR/USD fell 0.70% and GBP/USD 0.72%, which turned both weekly gains into losses.
The week in our price feed
| Pair | Friday 30 | Friday 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1160 | 1.1140 | −0.18% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3390 | 1.3352 | −0.28% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7031 | 0.6865 | −2.37% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5631 | 0.5545 | −1.52% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3974 | 1.4129 | +1.11% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8250 | 0.8205 | −0.54% |
| USD/JPY | 157.55 | 158.47 | +0.58% |
Last one-minute price before the Friday close in our own MT5 feed; changes are computed from unrounded prices. After last week's mixed finish, the dollar closed this one higher against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Canadian dollar, the yen, the pound and the euro, and lower against the Swiss franc. Gold rose 4.92%, from $3,875.18 to $4,065.82.
USD/JPY closed above 157.50 in all five sessions, nine in a row. Gold closed above $4,000 in the last three. Action Forex said the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.37% on the week, Treasury 10-year yields fell 7.4 basis points to 4.859%, and Brent fell 13.6% on a CFD basis.
What our own gauges saw
| Session | MRS | CTS | FSI | Most minutes on top | Dollar's rank (of 8) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 | 70 | 47 | 54 | no clear leader | 5th |
| Tue 3 | 42 | 50 | 55 | yen, 20.2% | 2nd |
| Wed 4 | 71 | 50 | 50 | yen, 20.7% | 2nd |
| Thu 5 | 71 | 50 | 50 | Australian dollar, 23.5% | 6th |
| Fri 6 | 43 | 50 | 55 | no clear leader | 8th |
Market Readiness Score (MRS), Carry Trade Score (CTS) and Forex Strength Index (FSI) readings at each session's close. The last two columns come from our strength table: the currency that spent the most minutes in first place, with its share, and the dollar's rank on that count; "no clear leader" means the top two were within the noise margin. The MRS read 42 and 43 on the two days a high-impact New Zealand event sat 15 minutes before the close: its jobs data on Tuesday and, on Friday, its election, which the calendar carried at 21:45 UTC. Its news component read zero on both days, against its full 20 on the other three, and its volatility component read 22 instead of its full 30. The CTS rose to 50 from 47 after the RBA's hike and did not move on the Bank of England's. The FSI closed every session Neutral, between 50 and 55.
Over the 7,187 minutes of the five sessions, the Australian dollar spent the most minutes at the top of the table, 1,223 of them, ahead of the yen on 1,138. The dollar was fourth, on 888, and the pound last, on 558. So the currency with the most minutes in first place lost the most against the dollar: the table counts minutes in first place, not how far a currency moves.
What stays open
US inflation comes first. Action Forex's calendar has October's CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC, with consensus at 0.3% on the month and 0.2% for core. Wells Fargo, in a note carried by Action Forex, said no year-over-year rates will be published this month, because no price data was collected in October 2025 during the government shutdown, which puts a bigger spotlight on the monthly changes. It expects 0.28% and 0.21%, and said that would leave its call for a December Fed hike intact. Danske Bank expects 0.3% for both. The same calendar has US producer prices on Friday.
December is still the month the forecasts point to, and Friday's jobs report raised the chances of a Fed hike then, FXStreet said. Action Forex's calendar also has UK third-quarter GDP on Thursday, with consensus at 0.7% on the quarter, and euro-area GDP on Friday. New Zealand was due to vote on Saturday, FXStreet said, so next week is the kiwi's first after the election.
Oil stays open too. Action Forex said Washington and Tehran have yet to bridge their differences over Iran's nuclear programme, and that maritime security incidents continue to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The tell to watch. 0.6854 and 0.6952 on AUD/USD. Action Forex's weekly report sees no sign of the pair bottoming and keeps its bias on the downside. It said a decisive break of 0.6854 would pave the way to 0.6723, and that a move above 0.6952 would turn its intraday bias neutral. On Friday the pair dipped to 0.68542 on our feed and closed at 0.68649, 11 pips above the lower line. By those levels, a session close below 0.6854 would put the Aussie below Friday's low and point to a deeper fall, while a close above 0.6952 would be the pair's first above that level since Wednesday.
