NZD/USD jumps 1.55% after NZ election; gold closes at $4,141.59

NZD/USD rose 1.55% to 0.56314 on our feed, the biggest move of a session in which the dollar closed lower against all seven majors. The pair opened higher after New Zealand's preliminary election count and kept climbing into the US afternoon. Gold rose 1.86% to $4,141.59, its highest close since 19 October, and oil slid on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy.

The dollar gave ground

• The dollar closed lower against all seven majors on our feed, from 0.08% against the Canadian dollar to 1.55% against the New Zealand dollar, a session after closing higher against all seven. FXStreet said it was the weakest of the majors as improving sentiment lifted riskier currencies, and Investing.com, 33 minutes after the close, called it a breather after last week's advance. EUR/USD and NZD/USD erased all of Friday's fall, while AUD/USD and GBP/USD stopped within 8 pips of Thursday's close.

• USD/CAD barely joined in: it fell 0.08% to 1.41176, giving back about a tenth of Friday's rise. FXStreet said the Canadian dollar lost ground in US trading even as the dollar index fell.

• Oil extended its decline as President Trump played down the prospect of renewed US military action against Iran, Action Forex said, and FXStreet carried a Reuters report that he was due to meet Qatar's prime minister at the White House to discuss a new ceasefire and a return to nuclear talks. WTI neared $87.00, FXStreet said, and Brent tested its recent lows around $94, according to Action Forex. FXStreet tied fresh pressure on the dollar to renewed speculation about a US-Iran agreement, which also weighed heavily on oil. After the close, it put WTI below $85.50, its lowest since August.

• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the risks "lie on the inflation side" of the Fed's mandate but that there was "no base case" for December, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said services inflation had accelerated, FXStreet reported.

The kiwi led the rebound

• NZD/USD rose 1.55% to 0.56314, after a high of 0.56378 at 20:22 UTC. New Zealand's governing coalition held a slim majority in the preliminary count, with about 14% of votes still to be counted, FXStreet said. Action Forex called it a one-seat majority, with special votes outstanding until 27 November, and said it reduced the immediate risk of a more dovish mandate for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

• AUD/USD rose 0.89% to 0.69258. The tell in our weekly wrap, 0.6854 and 0.6952, is still open: the pair's low, 0.6856 at 22:59 UTC in the session's first hour, stopped 2 pips above the lower line, and the pair closed below the upper one. FXStreet said the Aussie held its gains after China's inflation data, while AUD/NZD neared a two-month low.

• EUR/USD rose 0.75% to 1.12237, and GBP/USD rose 0.67% to 1.34415, back above 1.34 after one close below it. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said UK activity was proving more resilient than expected, partly due to investment in artificial intelligence, and warned of bubble risks, FXStreet said.

• USD/JPY fell 0.36% to 157.903, its tenth close in a row above 157.50. FXStreet still cited the hawkish minutes of the Bank of Japan's September meeting, released on Thursday, as a signal of a possible December hike.

• Gold rose 1.86% to $4,141.59 on our feed, its highest close since 19 October and its fourth in a row above $4,000, after a high of $4,148.50 at 20:28 UTC. FXStreet said it gained as the dollar weakened, even though Friday's jobs data had lifted bets on a December Fed hike; Action Forex said US inflation data could decide whether it clears resistance at $4,160–$4,200.

What the data showed

• CNY · Consumer prices: 0.7% on the year in October, against 0.8% expected, after 0.9%, FXStreet said.

• CNY · Producer prices: 5.7% on the year in October, against 5.4% expected, after 5.0%, Action Forex said.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 52, from 43. Its news component, which falls as a calendar event nears, was back at its full 20 from zero at Friday's close, so the rest of the gauge fell 11 points, all of them in its volatility component. The CTS read 50, unchanged, with its carry backdrop at 64 out of 100; the FSI read 48, Neutral, from 55.

• Top of our strength table: no clear leader; the top two were within the noise margin.

• Bottom: the New Zealand dollar, a clear laggard, last for 28% of the session's 1,436 minutes, even though it gained the most against the dollar. The table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move.

Today: US CPI for October is due at 13:30 UTC, forecast at 0.3% on the month and 0.2% for core; investingLive said the 43-day government shutdown left no official annual rate. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC.