USD/JPY closes at 159.792 and gold ends below $4,000

USD/JPY rose 0.66% to 159.792 on our feed and gold fell 1.14% to $3,985.26, its first close below $4,000 since 3 November. The dollar closed higher against all seven majors for a second session, and AUD/USD closed below 0.6854, the lower line of the tell in our weekly wrap.

The dollar extended its rally

• The dollar closed higher against all seven majors on our feed for a second session in a row, from 0.27% against the Australian dollar to 0.94% against the Swiss franc. FXStreet said the dollar index hit a fresh high for the year as bets on more aggressive Fed hikes grew, and put the dollar at levels last seen in April 2025. The US bond market was closed for Veterans Day, investingLive said.

• Markets fully priced a 25-basis-point Fed hike in December and saw some risk of 50, Deutsche Bank said in a note carried by FXStreet. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said "CPI was borderline disturbing on inflation", and the Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson said further gradual hikes were appropriate given high inflation, FXStreet reported.

The Aussie closed below our weekly line

• AUD/USD fell 0.27% to 0.68476, about 6 pips below 0.6854, so the tell in our weekly wrap, a session close below 0.6854 or above 0.6952, fired on its lower side. The pair's low, 0.68434, came at 14:46 UTC, and it stayed below 0.6854 from 15:00 UTC to the close. Action Forex said sustained trading below 0.6854 would pave the way to 0.6723, and FXStreet tied the Aussie's slide toward its March lows to diverging Fed and RBA outlooks.

The yen neared 160 and the euro fell below 1.11

• USD/JPY rose 0.66% to 159.792, its twelfth close in a row above 157.50 and the highest of them. After a high of 159.938 at 17:14 UTC, it closed above 159.02, the resistance in Action Forex's daily outlook. FXStreet said after the close that the pair had left the range it held for seven weeks and was at its highest since 2 September. MUFG's Derek Halpenny said the move back toward 160 kept intervention risks elevated, FXStreet reported.

• EUR/USD fell 0.67% to 1.10893, after a low of 1.10824 at 14:59 UTC, and closed below 1.1103, where Action Forex's daily outlook said a break would extend the larger fall toward 1.0904. FXStreet said the break below 1.1100, the floor of the range the pair had held for five weeks, put 1.1000 in focus.

• GBP/USD fell 0.52% to 1.32742. Its low, 1.32664 at 15:01 UTC, dipped below 1.3271, the support in Action Forex's daily outlook, but the pair closed above it; FXStreet said after the close that the pound was at its lowest since mid-October. Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said it was appropriate to tighten policy proactively against wage risks, investingLive reported.

• USD/CHF rose 0.94% to 0.83308, the dollar's biggest gain of the seven; FXStreet called it a four-week high.

• USD/CAD rose 0.45% to 1.42514, its highest close since 12 October on our feed; FXStreet put the Canadian dollar at a four-week low. NZD/USD fell 0.73% to 0.55630, leaving about a fifth of its rise on Monday after New Zealand's election.

Gold and oil

• Gold fell 1.14% to $3,985.26 on our feed, its first close below $4,000 since 3 November, ending a run of five closes above that level. It had reached $4,066.94 at 07:25 UTC before sliding to a low of $3,982.57 at 20:06 UTC. FXStreet tied the drop below $4,000 to high US yields and to traders fully pricing a December Fed hike.

• WTI held above $85 after rebounding from near $83, its lowest since late August, as hopes for a Middle East peace deal began to fade, FXStreet said; investingLive's Americas wrap said oil faded later in the day. Iran's parliament speaker said peace was a priority if Washington accepted Iran's conditions, investingLive reported.

Market gauges and what's next

Our proprietary metrics at the close of the session:

• Readings: an MRS of 63, from 71. Its news component stayed at its full 20 and its session, macro and positioning components did not move, so all 8 points of the drop came from its volatility component. The CTS read 50, unchanged, with its carry backdrop at 64 out of 100; the FSI read 52, Neutral, from 49.

• Top of our strength table: the Swiss franc, a clear leader, first for 272 of the session's 1,437 minutes, 19% of them, yet the major that lost the most against the dollar.

• Bottom: the US dollar, a clear laggard, last for 21% of the minutes, even though it rose against all seven. The table counts minutes in each place, not the session's net move.

Today: UK GDP is due at 07:00 UTC, with the monthly figure forecast at 0.0% and the preliminary third-quarter reading at 0.7% on the quarter, and ECB President Lagarde speaks at 19:30 UTC. After the close, FXStreet carried an Al Jazeera report that an Iranian military official said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the leader of the revolution ordered otherwise.